Knowledge required to speak intelligently about vaccine effectiveness

If people wish to argue about vaccinations they need to understand the difference between the science behind vaccines (how they impact on the immune system and the body in general) and statistical techniques used to analyze health population data to determine the safety and effectiveness of vaccine use amongst the population.

My own background is in the kind of multi-variate regression analysis that is used to determine such safety and effectiveness, and so I feel as qualified to speak on such matters as anyone else with a deep understanding of statistics, specifically regression analysis.

I don't think many scientists or doctors fit into this category, as their statistical background tends to be very weak and superficial, from those I have spoken to.


In statistics, in particular, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. In regression analysis, where changes in one variable are connected to changes in other variables, the choice of variables to include in one's explanatory equation can radically change one's results, which enables the "massaging" of results by unscrupulous operators seeking a certain outcome.

For those without access to all steps used to arrive at the choice of variables included in such an analysis, the actual results may be misleading.

We need to know how relationships change as different variables are added and subtracted from one's explanatory equation. This may reveal if variables are being chosen to arrive at a preferred result. If so, the findings of the research come under question.

Without closely scrutinizing every population study done, and talking to those that have conducted the study, we cannot speak with any authority about the findings of the study.

Therefore, I submit that few, if any of us, has the proper authority to speak definitively about vaccine effectiveness, or the effectiveness of any health intervention, as we don't have the time or resources to conduct this required level of scrutiny.

The simplistic idea that the fall in rates of infectious diseases in developed countries is entirely due to vaccine use, though widely promoted, is clearly false, as this dramatic reduction is the case for almost all infectious diseases, whether there is a commonly used vaccine for them or not, and is attributed primarily to improved standards of living by those with any knowledge of the subject.

The fact that falling infectious disease rates are attributed to vaccine use and not improved standards of living shows how deceptive or ignorant vaccine manufacturers and their promoters are.

Therefore, it behooves us to question deeply the information we receive from doctors and the medical establishment about vaccines, particularly when there is a strong vested interest in us receiving such interventions.

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